By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio and John Victor D. Ordoñez, Reporters
KEEPING a US missile system in the Philippines could deter Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, but could also fan regional tensions and increase the risk of confrontation at sea, political analysts said at the weekend.
“The purchase of missile technology can be a long, complicated and expensive process,” Raymond M. Powell, a fellow at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said in an X message.
“I think that for now, the presence of US missiles deployed in the Philippines is a good stopgap measure,” he added.
The US has no plan to withdraw its Typhon midrange missile system from the Philippines and is studying the feasibility of its use in a regional conflict, Reuters reported last week.
Manila is open to acquiring the US missile system despite calls from China to withdraw it from the Philippines after the US bringing it in for joint military drills this year, Agusan del Norte Rep. Jose “Joboy” S. Aquino II told the House of Representatives plenary last week.
He said the Philippines has yet to propose to buy it from Washington, but noted that the Defense department aims to acquire more South Korean-made FA-50 light combat military jets and upgrades, as well as weapon systems for Philippine Navy vessels.
Defense agencies will get P256.1 billion under the P6.352-trillion proposed national budget for next year.
“This is effective for deterrence against intruders for external defense and can be used for interoperability during military exercises,” Chester B. Cabalza, founder of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
He said Manila has the right to keep the missiles through its alliance with Washington amid warnings from China and Russia that this could fuel an arms race.
The US Army flew the Typhon, which can launch missiles including SM-6 missiles and Tomahawks with a range exceeding 1,600 kilometers (994 miles), to the Philippines in April in what it called a “historic first” and a “significant step in our partnership with the Philippines.”
Tensions between the Philippines and China have worsened in the past year as Beijing continues to block resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal, where Manila has a handful of troops stationed at a beached vessel.
Beijing’s Foreign Ministry has said Manila and its allies ganging up on China would only destabilize the region and worsen tensions.
A United Nations-backed tribunal based in the Hague in 2016 voided China’s claim to most of the South China Sea for being illegal. China has rejected the ruling.
RISK OF CONFRONTATIONS
Beijing insists it has sovereignty over most of the South China Sea based on its old maps and has deployed hundreds of coast guard vessels deep into Southeast Asia to assert its claims, disrupting offshore energy and fishing activities of its neighbors including Malaysia and Vietnam.
“I agree that intermediate-range missiles are an important component to the Philippines’ long-term security needs,” Mr. Powell said. “Manila should explore all options to fill this requirement.”
But Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a lecturer at the School of Diplomacy and Governance of De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, said keeping the US missile system could increase the risk of confrontations amid China’s encroachment in the South China Sea.
“The Philippines must put an emphasis on the fact that these weapons were not deployed in the first place to further exacerbate tensions with China,” he said in a Facebook chat.
“Through an exchange in diplomatic correspondence to clear the air on the matter, we can possibly reassure stakeholders that this is not a manifestation of a brewing war but is only an instrument to bolster our military capability through training and sharing of best practices with like-minded nations,” he added.
“Building confidence with China to manage our disputes is more important at this juncture than acquiring the missile system,” Rommel C. Banlaoi, president of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies, said in a Viber message.
“Buying the Typhon midrange missile will definitely irk China, thus making the peaceful resolution of conflicts in the West Philippine Sea difficult,” he added, referring to areas of the South China Sea within the country’s exclusive economic zone.
The plan to keep the missile system in the Philippines “threatens regional countries’ security” and “incites geopolitical confrontation,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a news briefing on Thursday.
“Manila’s range capability is limited,” Joshua Bernard B. Espeña, vice-president of Manila-based think-tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told BusinessWorld in a Facebook Messenger chat.
“Hosting the mid-range capability missile system can offset those limitations since these missiles belong to the US, whose defense industries can produce missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers,” he said.
“Per the Missile Technology Control Regime, seller countries cannot export missiles with more than a 300 km range,” he added, citing an agreement barring the US from selling to the Philippines cruise missiles that could strike targets up to 450 km and 1,600 km away.
The Missile Technology Control Regime is an informal agreement formed in 1987 by the G7, which includes the US. It was initially meant to curb the proliferation of nuclear armaments but has now shifted to prevent the spread of missile technologies.
It is not a treaty and is not binding to member-states. China is not a party to the agreement, but has introduced export control regulations that are “roughly parallel” to it, according to a 2012 research paper published on the United Kingdom’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office website.
The Philippines should pursue a self-reliant defense industry by linking economic zones to Western armament companies, and encourage research and development in long-range missile development, Mr. Espeña said.
“The long game is for the Philippines to develop its own feet in the ecology of defense industries toward developing indigenous missile capabilities that can go beyond the 300 km range imposed against importing countries,” he added.
Georgi Engelbrecht, a senior analyst at international conflict think tank Crisis Group, said buying the mid-range missile launcher system should be contextualized in the Philippines overall territorial defense strategy.
“Financial means are of course especially important, also since there is an ongoing modernization program,” he said in an X message to BusinessWorld.