By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter
THE DEPARTMENT of Agriculture (DA) on Monday said palay (unmilled rice) production likely declined this year due to the damage caused by El Niño-induced droughts and several strong typhoons.
“We can expect that the output will be lower compared to last year because of the huge damage due to El Niño and the series of typhoons even before Kristine,” DA Assistant Secretary and Spokesperson Arnel V. de Mesa told reporters at a briefing.
The department previously estimated palay production to drop to 19.41 million metric tons (MT) in 2024, 3.24% lower than the 20.06 million MT in 2023.
Mr. De Mesa said the country’s major rice-producing regions and areas were affected by Severe Tropical Storm Kristine.
“With Kristine, even though we put out an advisory to do an early harvest, there are still areas that cannot be harvested and were left behind. So, we are really seeing huge agricultural damage nationwide,” he said.
“We will know how big the damage is later. But there will be a decrease in output, especially in rice produce.”
A report by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) on Monday showed Severe Tropical Storm Kristine and Typhoon Leon caused P5.9 billion worth of damage to agriculture.
Mr. De Mesa said the damage from tropical cyclones this year is already higher than the annual average of 500,000 MT to 600,000 MT.
“The damage is a bit bigger this year, more than the regular losses that we expect,” he added.
Citing the assessments of DA Regional Field Offices as of Nov. 2, Mr. De Mesa said that damage to agriculture and crop losses due to Kristine have so far amounted to P5.75 billion.
“The biggest damage is recorded in the rice subsector at P4.25 billion, followed by high-value (crops) at P847 million, while fisheries recorded a P403 million loss in production,” he said.
“The biggest damage was recorded in the Bicol Region at almost P3 billion, followed by Mimaropa at P746 million, and third is in Cagayan Valley at P621 million,” he added.
The DA said Kristine has affected 131,661 farmers and fisherfolk covering 109,871 hectares of crops, which resulted in 557,851 MT in production loss.
Earlier this year, El Niño caused droughts and dry spells that affected crops in parts of the country. In its final bulletin on the effects of El Niño, the DA said that agricultural damage and losses in 15 regions were estimated at P15.3 billion.
Agricultural output declined by 3.3% to P413.91 billion in the second quarter, worsening from the 1.2% contraction a year earlier, reflecting the impact of El Niño.
For the first half, the value of production in agriculture and fisheries slipped by 1.5%, a reversal of the 0.4% growth a year ago.
Third-quarter agricultural output data will be released on Wednesday.
Sought for comment, Federation of Free Farmers National Manager Raul Q. Montemayor said that he expects a single-digit decline in production this year after the dismal output in the first half.
“I think it will still be single digit because harvests seem to be alright in areas not severely affected by the typhoons,” said Mr. Montemayor in a Viber message.
“But our supply deficit will continue to increase due to the drop in production coupled with the increase in demand or population,” he added.
Mr. Montemayor said output in the second half will most probably decline because of the effect of the typhoons.
“So, overall, we are looking at a drop in annual production,” he added.
Despite the projected decline, Mr. De Mesa said rice supply will be sufficient with the increased imports.
“Even if there is a decline, what is good here is that this will be supplemented by our import arrivals. As of mid-October, it is already at 3.6 million MT, which almost surpassed the total importation last year,” he added.
He said that they expect rice imports to be cheaper due to the lowered tariffs on rice and India’s lifting of its ban on the exports of white rice.
“Hopefully, the peso exchange rate will improve so that the price of imported rice will also further decline. Because this will help ensure that we will have enough supply and that prices will not be affected,” he added.
The US Department of Agriculture projects Philippine rice imports to hit 4.7 million MT this year.