THE MPOX outbreak in Central and Eastern Africa poses low risks to Southeast Asian economies, but a major outbreak could hamper international travel, Fitch Solutions’ unit BMI said.
“Our view for Southeast Asia is that the risk is very low, for reasons including mpox being less contagious than other rapidly spreading infectious diseases, and availability of vaccines and other medical countermeasures,” Ben Yau, Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Analyst at BMI, said in an e-mail.
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called mpox a “public health emergency of international concern” amid the recent surge of mpox cases in African countries.
Mpox can be transmitted through close contact, contaminated materials, or through infected animals.
Despite this, BMI noted that mpox is less contagious than diseases that spread globally like the coronavirus or the severe acute respiratory syndrome or SARS.
The mpox outbreak is also mainly contained in rural areas in Africa that are rarely traveled, it said.
“Travel to and from these regions is difficult and rare at the best of times, and local medical authorities have already launched screening efforts to prevent the spread of the disease to major urban centers (such as Kinshasa) or across international borders, BMI said in a report.
Further, policy makers now have access to vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions, decreasing risks of an mpox transmission, it added.
“Governments elsewhere in the world are in a much better starting position than they have been for previous health emergencies.”
However, a high-profile outbreak in major tourist destinations may still pose “greater economic costs,” BMI said, citing Morocco, Turkey, and the Gulf states as the most exposed.
“While widespread transmission outside of the currently affected areas is unlikely, it remains possible that a small but widely-publicized outbreak could cause some economic disruption by deterring international travel,” Mr. Yau said.
BMI noted that a large-scale outbreak in Qatar or the United Arab Emirates, which have direct flights to Rwanda and Uganda, may pose significant risk for economies dependent on international travel tourism, BMI said.
Other countries at risk of mpox exposure due to direct flights from African countries include France, Belgium, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Netherlands, and India.
Local authorities’ response to a possible outbreak, as well as preexisting views on safety, would help prevent the transmission of mpox through travel, BMI said.
John Paolo R. Rivera, Senior Research Fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the Philippine government must bolster its information campaigns and review safety and hygiene protocols to prevent the spread of mpox.
“It (mpox) may hamper travel preferences and propensity as a reaction to the possibility of contracting the virus due to physical interaction,” he said in a Viber message.
The Philippines recorded 18 mpox cases as of Aug. 18, the Health Secretary Teodoro J. Herbosa said last week. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz